Money Flood Swamps Texas Senate

Texas governor seal on wooden podium — Photo: Carrington Tatum / Shutterstock

Sen. Ted Cruz says the fight for Texas’ other U.S. Senate seat will cost roughly $200 million before voters cast a single ballot in November.

Quick Take

Cruz told CBS News the Texas Senate race will be a “$200 million” fight, doubling the number CBS first floated to him.
Democrat James Talarico raised $31.6 million last quarter, far outpacing Republican Ken Paxton’s $9.3 million.
A Cruz-linked super PAC just launched a $1.7 million ad buy to help Paxton close the gap.
A pro-Talarico super PAC says it plans to spend up to $62 million on the race alone.
The race reflects a national trend of outside spending groups driving costs far beyond what candidates raise themselves.

Cruz Sets The Price Tag

Cruz made the prediction during a CBS News interview that aired August 24. When host Major Garrett asked if the race would be a “$100 million” fight, Cruz doubled it. “It’s going to be expensive,” he said, laying out the stakes as Attorney General Ken Paxton faces state Representative James Talarico for the seat.

Cruz didn’t explain how he arrived at the figure. But early fundraising numbers already suggest the race is on track to become one of the most expensive Senate contests in Texas history, with both campaigns and outside groups pouring in cash months before Election Day.

Talarico’s Fundraising Lead Widens

Talarico’s campaign reported raising $30 million in the second quarter of 2026, more than triple Paxton’s haul that quarter. A later filing put the number at $31.6 million, compared to $9.3 million for Paxton. Since launching his campaign, Talarico has raised a cumulative $72 million, according to Texas Tribune reporting that tracked both campaigns’ filings with the Federal Election Commission.

Paxton’s second-quarter total of over $9 million marked his best quarter yet and signaled the Republican donor class is rallying behind him, according to the Texas Tribune. Still, the gap between the two candidates remains wide, and Republicans are now leaning more heavily on outside groups to help close it.

Outside Groups Step In

A super PAC linked to Cruz, called Truth and Courage, launched a more than $1.7 million ad campaign on broadcast TV and Fox News in Houston to boost Paxton, Axios reported August 21. On the Democratic side, a pro-Talarico super PAC called Moment of Truth says it wants to spend up to $62 million on ads, polling, and research through November to protect Talarico from Republican attacks.

The Cook Political Report kicked the U.S. Senate race in Texas to the toss up column on Thursday after ranking it as likely Republican for months until a shift this summer to leans GOP. The Cook report also moved the Texas governor's race in the direction of the Democrats with a…

— Mike Hailey (@capitolinside) August 20, 2026

These figures show why Cruz’s $200 million estimate isn’t far-fetched. Senate races increasingly draw spending from sources well beyond the candidates themselves, and Texas is no exception.

A National Pattern Of Rising Costs

Outside spending in Senate races has climbed for over a decade. The Brennan Center found outside expenditures grew from about $3 million per Senate race in 2010 to more than $8 million by 2014, and one 2016 Pennsylvania race alone drew $119 million from outside groups. Brookings similarly found the 20 most expensive Senate races since 2010 topped hundreds of millions combined in independent spending.

That trend means the final price tag on the Texas race will likely include far more than what Talarico and Paxton raise on their own. Super PACs, party committees, and independent spenders often account for a majority of total spending once a race is seen as competitive, a pattern both parties have leaned into for years regardless of who benefits most.

For voters, the scale of money flooding into a single Senate seat raises a familiar question: whether races decided by hundreds of millions in outside cash still reflect the will of everyday Texans, or increasingly the priorities of the donors and political operations funding them. Cruz’s own comments suggest even seasoned political insiders expect the answer to keep tilting toward the latter.