Trump Leads in 5 Key Swing States

( – Since last fall, polls have shown that former President Donald Trump has a slight lead over President Joe Biden, give or take a few points, in at least five of the six swing states leading into the 2024 presidential election, and newer polls show that trend has not wavered.

According to new polls from Siena College, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and The New York Times, the presumptive GOP nominee is coming in strong against Biden for the much-anticipated rematch, by leading in the battleground states of Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. The polls surveyed 4,071 registered voters between April 28 and May 9, with a plus or minus margin of error of 3.6 to 4.6 percentage points over the five states.

The results show Trump leading Biden in Arizona and Michigan at 49% to 42%. That gap is even wider in Georgia, with Trump ahead by ten points at 49% to Biden’s 39%, and even more in Nevada with 50% support for Trump next to 38% for Biden. In Pennsylvania, the match-up yielded 47% to 44%, favoring Trump. Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, the sixth battleground state, but is only narrowly holding onto that lead by two points, at 47% to Trump’s 45%.

Those ratios did not shift when factoring in independent and third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Kennedy drew voters from Biden and Trump about equally and polled at an average of 10% throughout the swing states.

In 2020, the president won all six of these states, but polls going back to last fall show his nationwide ad campaign since then has failed to shift public opinion in the battleground states. Such states are sometimes described as purple because they could shift red or blue, often deciding elections in the final delegate count, and Trump maintains that advantage.

The recent polls also show Trump gaining ground among black voters, over 20% of whom support him, representing the highest level of support among that demographic for a Republican candidate since the 1964 Civil Rights Act. The two candidates are about even in support from Hispanic voters and from young voters between 18 and 29.

Some factors in Biden’s lagging include the economy, his handling of foreign conflicts, and the southern border crisis.

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