Satellite Images Suggest Russian Sarmat Missile Test Was a Massive Failure, Analysts Say

Satellite images suggest a recent Russian Sarmat missile test was a massive failure, analysts say.

At a Glance

Russia’s Sarmat missile test appears to have suffered a “catastrophic failure,” according to satellite images.
Images show a 60-meter-wide crater at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome launch site.
The RS-28 Sarmat missile faces delays and multiple testing setbacks.
Analysts suggest the failure occurred soon after ignition, likely due to a booster malfunction.
The Kremlin referred questions to the defense ministry which has not commented on the incident.

Satellite Imagery Reveals Catastrophic Failure

Satellite images analyzed by arms experts suggest a recent test of Russia’s RS-28 Sarmat missile, also known as Satan II, ended in “catastrophic failure.” The images revealed a 60-meter-wide crater at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome launch site taken on September 21. This key evidence suggests extensive damage to the facility.

Analysts believe the alleged failure occurred soon after ignition, possibly due to a booster malfunction. The RS-28 Sarmat, intended to replace the aging SS-18 missiles, has reportedly faced repeated delays and testing problems since its development began in the 2000s.

6/ Sarmat's development has faced repeated delays, however, and this recent apparent failed test would be the fourth reported failed test of the Sarmat to date. Russia has only successfully tested the Sarmat once, in April 2022, and the Russian military reportedly put the missile…

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) September 23, 2024

Cause of the Alleged Failure

Analysts suggest the booster mechanism was the likely culprit behind the failure. Despite President Putin’s claims in October 2023 that the Sarmat program was nearly complete, this alleged incident underscores significant technical issues. The Kremlin has deflected questions, directing inquirers to the defense ministry, which has not commented.

“One possible cause is that the first stage (booster) either failed to ignite properly or suffered from a catastrophic mechanical failure, causing the missile to fall back into or land closely adjacent to the silo and explode,” Timothy Wright of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.

The alleged incident at Plesetsk marks the fourth successive failure for the Sarmat missile, further delaying its service readiness initially projected for 2018. It also reaffirms ongoing technical vulnerabilities in Russia’s missile development program.

International Implications

The U.S. and its allies are closely monitoring Russia’s nuclear arsenal advancements amid heightened tensions due to the Ukraine conflict. Reports indicate the repeated delays in deploying the Sarmat missile, which is designed to carry up to 16 nuclear warheads over a distance of 18,000 kilometers, put additional pressure on Russia’s defense posture.

Experts believe that, despite setbacks, Russia will persist with the Sarmat program to foster competitiveness among missile designers. This persistence highlights the strategic importance of the Sarmat in modernizing Russia’s nuclear capacities.